Sound Off
Appearing in the San Francisco Chronicle Real Estate Section
From time to time, the editors of the Real Estate section at the San Francisco Chronicle will ask leading area real estate agents their opinion and thoughts about various topics related to the Bay Area’s housing market. This is right up our alley given our track record, experience helping buyers and sellers in various parts of the Bay Area and given the fact that Kevin used to be a reporter and lawyer, so you know there‘s an opinion just waiting to get out.
SF‘s Housing Market: Susceptible to Election Influence or Interference?
Every election has consequences and this year’s is no different with rent control, bond issues and the direction of where San Francisco is headed on the ballot
This Week's Question:
Is uncertainty around the upcoming election (local or national) impacting Bay Area real estate in any way?
Answer:
Historically, elections themselves haven’t significantly impacted home sales or prices in San Francisco. This year may seem no different—market stories are bright, with a $14 million North Side mansion selling in under 5 days, and homes in Bernal Heights, Noe Valley, and the Sunset (among more) consistently going hundreds of thousands over list.
But look deeper, and this election proves especially important. While interest rates are still the main driver, potential rent control expansions and changes to bond voting thresholds (and various bond issues themselves) could reshape the market.
San Francisco’s mayoral race and supervisor races in particular, will influence housing policy and recovery in areas like Downtown and SOMA, where median prices have dropped $300,000 in just 3 years. The fate of the Great Highway and whether it stays a thoroughfare or becomes a sandy park is at stake. This may seem like a routine election, but the stakes are high. All the more reason to vote now—or risk people voting with their feet later.
This appeared in the Sunday, October 20, 2024 edition of the San Francisco Chronicle and on SFGate.
Previous Voter Initiatives that changed our marketplace
Stuck in the 1970s: Prop 13
Prop 13 from the late 1970s froze property tax assessed values in place and limited any annual increase in assessed value to no more than 2 percent for all properties in California. The only times property gets reassessed are when they are sold or if more usable/livable space is added (one of the reasons why many people avoid getting permits for remodels).
SF‘s Rent Ordinance
Passed on June 13, 1979, the city Rent Ordinance has impacted and distorted the city’s housing market profoundly. More than enough ink and electrons have been spilled about the merits of rent and eviction control, but this year’s ballot seeks to expand the ability to expand and enact more rental restrictions across the state in the form of Prop 33, the third attempt to do so in so many years.
2020‘s Prop 19
Prop 19 clarified how Props 60 and 90 work. Passed in 2020, the changes concerned the portability and transferability of property tax assessed values for older people selling or transferring their homes. Thanks to Prop 13 keeping assessed values artificially low, being able to have seniors and families transferring properties between generations was an easy sell to the populace.
How about Election Year Fed rate cuts, do they have impact?
Correlation and causation on display (or not)
Reuters did a study when the Fed lowered its lending rates in September 2024, just seven weeks before the election (the shortest interval being just 4 weeks in the 1976 election).
Check out their coverage here.
What Are The Issues At Stake?
KQED, the public radio station, put out a fairly comprehensive and relatively objective voter guide that goes into the details that will help you tackle this election’s unwieldy ballot.
For More Sound-Off Snippets...
How local elections in San Francisco and elsewhere will impact housing decisions that have consequences for everyone and the market with Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry, top producing buyer and seller agents with San Francisco’s Vanguard Properties, the leading locally owned LGBTQ real estate brokerage for San Francisco and the Bay Area.
1264 Church Street, San Francisco, a sunny, top-floor, 2-bed, 1-bath, 1-car parking garage space with ±1,284 sqft (per LiDar) as listed by Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry of Vanguard Properties. SF MLS 423910006. www.1264-church.com At the heart of this stand-out property is the newly renovated chef’s kitchen (designed for cooking classes and entertaining), the new bathroom, new, in-unit laundry, new stainless appliances, dual pane windows, wood floors and designer lighting. Combined with its 1935 Spanish-revival heritage in a sought-after Noe Valley location, 1264 Church is exceptional.